How to Tell if Your Housing Market Has Hit Bottom (Part 2)

by The Real Estate Faction on July 19, 2011


It’s the oldest joke in real estate, but with a new punch line:

Q: What are the three most important things to consider when buying a house?

A: Jobs. Jobs. Jobs.

Clearly, the No. 1 factor in determining whether a community has passed through the worst of the housing debacle is its current state of employment. There has always been a connection between the local jobs picture and the local real-estate market, but it’s even greater today.

The official U.S. unemployment rate was still a very high 9.2% as the prime home-shopping season began in March. Denton County’s unemployment rate was 7.4% in March way up from before the financial crisis but lower than the rate for all of Texas and nearly two points below the national rate. Unemployment in Cambridge’s Middlesex County is 2½ percentage points below the U.S. average.

Indeed, many of the communities that turned up in the Zillow analysis have big recession-insulated employers like Cambridge’s and Denton’s universities.

Look at North Carolina, where three communities appear on the Zillow list. Although North Carolina’s unemployment rate is higher than the national average, all three communities are lower than the state rate. Jacksonville, where values are just 0.1% below their peak, is the home of the Marine Corps’ Camp Lejeune and New River Air Station. Fayetteville has the Army’s Fort Bragg and Pope Air Force Base. And Durham is one of the vertices of the Research Triangle conglomeration of universities, state and federal government offices, and government, nonprofit and corporate research facilities.


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