How to Tell if Your Housing Market Has Hit Bottom (Part 3)

by The Real Estate Faction on July 20, 2011


Local rents are very strong indicators of real-estate values. Home prices in most communities that have best weathered the downturn tend toward the low-rent end. That is, they have lower price-to-rent multiples, and house hunters will often find it cheaper to buy properties than to rent them.

Look at a typical “rent vs. buy” calculator available on many real-estate or personal-finance websites. Most calculators figure that if prices are more than 15 times annual rents, then a market favors renters; under 15 times, buyers.

Earlier this month, there was a $525-a-month rental two-bedroom, one bath house in Conway, Ark., near the state capital, Little Rock, where home values are down just 5.1% from their peak. But asking prices for comparable houses in the same neighborhood are in the high $60,000s—so, using the typical rent-vs.-buy formula, prices are about 11 times rent, a bargain.

That’s the same price-to-rent multiple as in college town Champaign, Ill., where a three-bedroom, one-bath house was on the rental market for $850 a month. Albany, N.Y., another state capital, also falls within the affordability range. You can buy a four-bedroom, 1½-bath house for around $200,000, only about eight times the annual rent.

Caveat: Beware the outliers. Extremely low price-to-rent multiples can be warning flags for seriously depressed markets that are glutted with unsold properties. Trulia, another real-estate information site, regularly publishes a rent-to-buy analysis of large metropolitan areas, and the most “affordable” markets are a Where’s Where of the real-estate bust: Las Vegas (prices 6 times rents), Phoenix (7), Miami (8). At the opposite end, Trulia’s survey says the “least affordable” market is New York City (39), where home values are down just 9.1% from their peak.


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